ISPA Releases New Industry Forecast: Analysis projects drop in sales in 2018, followed by modest growth in 2019 and 2020

When final numbers are tallied, the U.S. mattress industry is expected to see declines in both the dollar value and number of units shipped in 2018, according to the latest forecast from the International Sleep Products Association.

The forecast, released in November 2018, expects the number of units (mattresses and foundations) shipped in 2018 to decrease 4% over 2017 levels and the wholesale dollar value of those shipments to decline 2%.

The U.S. mattress market is expected to improve in 2019 and 2020. The ISPA forecast estimates unit shipments will rise 2% and the value of shipments will grow 4%. For 2020, the forecast predicts units shipped to rise 2.5% and the value of those shipments to increase 4%.

The overall average unit price for mattresses is expected to grow by 2% in 2018, compared with 2017, marking the eighth consecutive annual increase in the AUP since 2010. The AUP is projected to increase 2% and 1.5% in 2019 and 2020, respectively, in line with the inflation in consumer prices.

ISPA’s Statistics Committee prepares forecasts for the U.S. mattress market, typically twice a year or more often if circumstances warrant it. Forecasts are based in part on an economic analysis prepared by the University of Michigan and input from the committee. The forecast also contains economic and market analyses by Jerry Epperson, managing partner of Richmond, Virginia-based investment banking firm Mann, Armistead & Epperson Ltd., and Ashraf Abdul-Mohsen, vice president of economic research for Association Research Inc. in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

Full statistical reports are available free to ISPA members and for a fee to the investor community. Download this PDF, Explanation of the Process ISPA Uses to Forecast Future Market Activity in the Mattress Industry, to see how ISPA develops its forecasts and understand the various economic factors that the ISPA Statistics Committee takes into consideration in preparing the forecasts. For more information, contact Jane Oseth, ISPA member services manager, at joseth@sleepproducts.org or 703-683-8371.